Oil Forecast, News and Analysis (WTI) TRENDING:Oil price XAU/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD Silver Newsletter UpgradeLogin Rates & Charts Charts Live chart Forecast poll Rates table Technical indicators Assets EUR/USD GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY Dollar Index Gold Oil SP500 News News Forex news Institutional research Latest by asset EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD USD/CHF EUR/GBP Dollar Index Commodities Bonds Analysis Analysis Forex analysis Editorial picks EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/CAD NZD/USD US Dollar Index Gold Oil Stocks Commodities Economic Calendar Economic calendar Economic calendar World interest rates Market hours Fed Sentiment Index Key events Fed Nonfarm payrolls US CPI BoC ECB BoE BoJ RBA RBNZ SNB Cryptos Crypto Crypto news Press releases Latest by asset Bitcoin Ethereum Ripple Cardano Solana Dogecoin Education Education Forex education Brokers Brokers Brokers Broker reviews Best of 2026 Press releases Trader cashback Prop Firms PropinderNEW Sponsored by Login Oil Forecast and News WTI advances above $82.00 as US-Iran deadlock supports prices West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil advances on Monday and trades around $82.10 at the time of writing, up 0.70% on the day. Oil prices remain supported by the deadlock between the United States (US) and Iran, which keeps concerns about Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz elevated. Technical Analysis OIL Charts by TradingView Lightweight Charts In the one-hour chart, WTI US Oil trades at $82.13. The contract holds a constructive short-term bias as price moves above the former descending trend-line barrier near $82.02 and trades above both the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $81.54 and the 200-period SMA at $78.99, keeping the intraday trend underpinned. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62.8 leans into bullish territory, suggesting buyers retain control but are not yet stretched into overbought conditions. On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the horizontal barrier around $83.57, with a further cap emerging at $84.60 if upside pressure extends. On the downside, the trend-line near $82.02 is now immediate support ahead of the 100-period SMA at $81.54, while a deeper pullback would look toward the $80.00 horizontal floor and then the 200-period SMA around $78.99 as a stronger structural base. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Fundamental Analysis Time Event Impact Actual Consensus Previous The prospects for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain as talks between Washington and Tehran appear to have reached a standstill. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says that no negotiations are currently taking place between the two countries and that the United States must accept Iran's conditions for shipping to resume through the strategic waterway. Tensions intensified further over the weekend. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi called on US President Donald Trump to “accept the reality of defeat,” after Trump suggested that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.” The Oil market is also monitoring developments in Lebanon following a renewed escalation in fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah. A further deterioration in the conflict could heighten concerns about the stability of energy supplies in the Middle East and maintain a geopolitical risk premium in WTI prices. Supply risks are not limited to the Middle East. Russia is facing fuel shortages after Ukraine resumed near-daily attacks on Russian Oil refineries, adding another source of uncertainty over the availability of energy products. Traders now turn their attention to the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly Crude Oil inventory report, due on Tuesday. Oil risk premium builds as Middle East ceasefire frays and curves swing deeper into backwardation Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen flags that, as Bloomberg notes “the ceasefire is set to expire today,” there is “little left of that truce to begin with.” Negotiations have broken down and, over the weekend, Israel launched fresh strikes in Lebanon, a bulk carrier attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz “was hit by a projectile,” and Yemen’s main port suspended operations after Houthi missile attacks. Against this backdrop, Rabobank warns that additional US sanctions on Iran could prove costly at home as well, with Bloomberg having explored what a further “economic isolation” of Tehran might entail given it is already subject to extensive sanctions and a naval blockade, “most of them” carrying “some repercussions for the US too.” The bank argues that Washington’s “strongest move might be to sanction Chinese banks that finance the trade in Iranian oil,” but cautions this “will surely worsen US-China relations ahead of a scheduled Trump-Xi meeting.” On the energy side, Rabobank notes that Washington has been trying to offset the fallout via the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but “that hasn’t stopped prices from going up.” More importantly, these buffers are finite: “The SPR has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since it was filled in the 1980s,” a level that “adds to concerns about the integrity of the caverns – as experts are divided over the amount of oil that needs to remain to prevent structural damage to the storage sites.” Societe Generale highlights that “since February 28, the Iran-US conflict has injected significant volatility into oil prices.” The bank observes that “the forward curve has fluctuated sharply but has remained predominantly in backwardation, only briefly slipping into front-end contango during periods when hopes of de-escalation gained traction.” With the conflict “effectively at a stalemate and inventories continuing to draw,” Societe Generale judges that “the current degree of backwardation appears fundamentally justified.” It adds that “the Strait of Hormuz crisis further widened this gap,” as “front-end oil prices surged to multi-year highs, pushing crude oil curves into deep backwardation.” In index space, the bank notes that “as a result, oil and refined products now account for roughly 51% of the GSCI, versus around 30% of the BCOM.” Latest content AnalysisNews 1 hour ago Our bond auctions are becoming theater 1 hour ago Türkiye: From currency crisis to inflation culture 1 hour ago Markets consolidate after CPI More Latest Analysis Smart insights by real people. Every day. Stay ahead with key market trends from Orange Juice Newsletter. Mail* SubscribeYes, I also want to receive FXStreet promotions. By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs. Best brokers in your location About Oil Crude oil, commonly known as petroleum, is a naturally occurring fossil fuel liquid composed of hydrocarbon underground deposits and organic materials. Its prices are typically measured in US Dollars (USD). The top oil-producing countries include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States, Iran, and China, while the largest consumers are the United States, China, Japan, Russia, and Germany. Crude oil is classified into various grades according to density (heavy versus light) and sulfur content (sour versus sweet). Lighter and sweeter crude commands higher prices because refiners can produce a greater yield of high-quality refined products from it. Density is measured by API gravity, a scale developed to compare the density of petroleum to water. An API greater than 10 means the liquid floats on water. In general, crude Oils with API values between 40 and 45 degrees have the highest commercial value. Sulfur content determines the quality of crude Oil. Crude with high sulfur content (sour crude) is less pure and sells cheaper compared to crude with low sulfur content (sweet crude). Major benchmarks There are two main benchmarks for pricing crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) from the United States (US) and Brent from the United Kingdom (UK). WTI Crude WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as "light" and "sweet" because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high-quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered "The Pipeline Crossroads of the World". Most WTI crude Oil is refined in the Midwest and the Gulf Coast regions of the US. Supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, are another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. WTI serves as a benchmark in Oil pricing and is the underlying commodity of NYMEX Oil futures contracts. Brent Brent Crude Oil is a type of Crude Oil found in the North Sea that is used as a benchmark for international Oil prices. It is considered "light" and "sweet" because of its high gravity and low sulfur content, making it easier to refine into gasoline and other high-value products. Brent Crude Oil serves as a reference price for approximately two-thirds of the world's internationally traded Oil supplies. Its popularity rests on its availability and stability: the North Sea region has well-established infrastructure for Oil production and transportation, ensuring a reliable and consistent supply. Brent crude is a blend from 15 different oil fields in the North Sea. It has an API gravity of 38.3 degrees and a sulfur content of around 0.37%, making it heavier and less sweet than WTI crude. Brent is suitable for the refinery of gasoline and middle distillates. Originally traded on the International Petroleum Exchange in London, Brent crude futures have been listed on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) since 2005. Oil and USD/CAD Correlation The special relationship between Oil and the Loonie Canada is among the world's largest Oil producers and it exports crude primarily to the US. This trade relationship directly impacts the Canadian Dollar (CAD), popularly known as the Loonie. Since Canadian dollars are needed to purchase and move Oil across the border, the fluctuation in Oil prices has a direct impact on the USD/CAD pair. When Oil prices decline, the demand for the Loonie often weakens, causing USD/CAD to rise. Conversely, higher Oil prices frequently lead to CAD strength and a drop in the pair. Oil prices are a significant factor influencing the Loonie's price action, alongside risk sentiment and economic fundamentals. If you are trading USD/CAD, monitoring Oil charts can provide crucial insights. 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